Bersin: AI Elevates, Not Eliminates, Jobs

Industry analyst Josh Bersin explains why AI will create new jobs and elevate human work, rather than causing widespread unemployment. He argues that AI is a tool that transforms employees into “superworkers,” enhancing creativity and business growth.

In an age where the discourse around artificial intelligence often oscillates between utopian dreams and dystopian nightmares, a seasoned voice from the world of talent and HR research offers a much-needed dose of pragmatism.

While prominent figures like Yuval Noah Harari warn of existential shifts and tech titans like Marc Benioff trumpet the rapid automation of vast swathes of their operations, Josh Bersin, a renowned industry analyst, asserts that the hype surrounding AI’s destructive potential for jobs and humanity is vastly overblown.

His perspective, grounded in daily interactions with hundreds of companies and software vendors, paints a far more nuanced, and ultimately optimistic, picture of our AI-driven future.

Bersin champions the idea that AI tools are not harbingers of unemployment but rather catalysts for unparalleled personal creativity, business growth, and innovation.

Far from decimating the workforce, he argues these technologies will create new jobs, elevate wages, and profoundly improve our professional lives. This isn’t a blind faith in technology, but an observation rooted in the current, somewhat messy, reality of AI adoption.

One of Bersin’s primary contentions is that the anticipated “wipeout” of white-collar jobs simply isn’t materializing.

While there is a discernible softness in hiring across some sectors, this isn’t a direct consequence of AI replacing human roles en masse. Instead, it’s largely a byproduct of aggressive CEO mandates.

Boards and C-suites, fueled by a 62% surge in IT budgets and a fervent desire to be seen as cutting-edge, are pushing for AI adoption, often translating into frozen hiring budgets.

The directive is clear: “stop hiring workers and get going implementing AI.” Yet, the practical execution of this mandate remains largely elusive.

The reality, Bersin explains, is that off-the-shelf AI solutions like Microsoft Copilot, SAP Joule, and even ChatGPT are not yet fully integrated into complete, ready-to-deploy applications.

Companies are grappling with fundamental questions: which jobs need to be redesigned?

What routine tasks can genuinely be eliminated?

And, crucially, which AI solutions are even worth investing in? Most organizations, according to Bersin’s four-stage AI transformation model, are still in the nascent stages of adoption, exploring possibilities rather than executing widespread automation.

He points to the grand claims of executives like Marc Benioff, who suggested 30-50% of Salesforce operations are now AI-driven, with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Bersin observes Salesforce’s organic revenue growth at 8% and employee growth at 4%, suggesting only a marginal productivity gain, a far cry from the dramatic job automation Benioff implies.

The complex, company-specific nature of business processes means a significant “development cycle” of one to two years is still ahead before true transformation takes hold.

Many companies, like the airline Bersin recently consulted with in the Middle East, are still in the redesign phase, seeking solutions that don’t yet exist off the shelf.

This suggests a future where much of corporate AI re-engineering will be built internally, in close partnership with vendors, demanding a clear vision from companies themselves.

Crucially, Bersin posits that for every AI “agent” adopted, new jobs are concurrently created.

He terms this the Superworker effect. Consider his company’s own Galileo AI agent, which has seen over 4,000 users.

Each user, upon automating routine, mind-numbing tasks, has found themselves with new, higher-level work to do – finding data, refining processes, or managing the AI itself.

This isn’t job elimination; it’s job elevation. The analogy of a leaf-blower is apt: it doesn’t make leaves disappear, nor does it render a broom obsolete.

It merely accelerates the initial task, creating subsequent, often more complex, responsibilities like bagging or trimming hedges. This dynamic transforms employees into “Superworkers,” upgrading their value to their organizations.

The continued low US unemployment rate, hovering around 4.2%, serves as a testament to the job market’s resilience in this transitional period.

The historical parallel of the internet’s advent is instructive. When the web emerged around 1998, fears abounded that books and retail stores would vanish.

What transpired was an evolution: writers and retailers adapted, leveraged, and exploited the new medium.

Today, the web underpins myriad advanced hybrid solutions, from Substack to hybrid e-commerce, forcing adaptation and, ultimately, fostering new growth.

Book publishing, far from disappearing, flourishes, with writers now having diverse avenues to connect with audiences.

This “creative re-engineering” of work, Bersin argues, is accelerating, transforming every employee into a developer of their own work, using natural language to “program and automate.”

Furthermore, Bersin challenges the notion of AI’s purported “super intelligence.” Despite the fascination with General AI and superintelligence, he reminds us of the profound complexity of the human genome, a product of millions of years of evolution, encoding empathy, creativity, passion, and often unpredictable behavior.

These quintessentially human skills – perception, ambition, grit, innovation – are conspicuously absent in AI.

While AI excels as a powerful analytical engine, its current capabilities, even in cutting-edge labs like Meta’s “Superintelligence Lab,” are primarily geared towards optimizing existing paradigms, such as targeted advertising.

He expresses excitement for “physical AI” – robots designed for dangerous environments like oil refineries or nuclear plants, or even mundane tasks like clearing weights in a gym.

Such applications offer immense practical value, potentially saving lives and improving efficiency. Yet, he cautions against anthropomorphizing these machines.

An autonomous car or refinery robot does not “feel” or “understand” in the human sense. Humans, with their unparalleled adaptability, will always “rise above” these sophisticated tools.

Ultimately, it is human ingenuity that remains the wellspring of new ideas, businesses, and industries.

AI, for all its power, cannot conceive of a new business model, innovate a breakthrough product, or spark a new company.

Every significant advancement, from Apple to Disney, originated in the human mind – a complex tapestry of instincts, learning, and emotion.

This “Unquenchable Power of the Human Spirit” thrives under adversity, as evidenced by the adaptability seen during the pandemic or the resilience of those facing chronic disease.

Bersin emphasizes that AI lacks a true understanding of history or the nuanced cause-and-effect of time-based learning, a cornerstone of human wisdom and adaptability.

The bottom line, as Bersin sees it, is profoundly reassuring: AI is a tool.

Like any powerful instrument, from a lawnmower to a power saw, its impact is determined by human hands and human intent.

The onus is on us, as high-level thinking beings, to understand this tool, learn its application, and integrate it thoughtfully into our jobs, companies, and lives.

Life will proceed, economies will continue to be swayed by human emotion, and businesses will remain fueled by the indomitable human spirit of ideas, emotion, grit, and hard work.

The future, it seems, is not one of AI replacing humanity, but of humanity leveraging AI to become something more.