Foldable Market Prepares for 2026 Surge

The foldable phone market anticipates a significant surge in 2026, despite modest current growth and strong competition challenging Samsung’s dominance. This boom is largely expected with Apple’s potential entry, which could validate the technology and drive mainstream adoption.

For years, the foldable phone has been heralded as the next frontier, a revolutionary leap beyond the conventional slab.

Yet, as TrendForce’s latest projections reveal, the journey to mainstream adoption remains a measured one, even as the stage is set for a potential seismic shift in 2026.

According to the Taipei-based market intelligence firm, 2025 will see foldable phone shipments reach approximately 19.8 million units globally.

While this represents growth, the market penetration rate is expected to hover around 1.6%, mirroring 2024 figures.

It’s a curious paradox: a segment brimming with technological marvels, from ever-improving hinge designs to increasingly subtle creases, is still struggling to break free from its niche as a high-end curiosity.

Indeed, the growth curve has noticeably flattened compared to the early, explosive years of foldable introduction.

Yet, beneath this seemingly modest expansion lies a strategic intensification.

Manufacturers are not slowing down; quite the opposite.

They are accelerating their development roadmaps, expanding product portfolios, and meticulously crafting pricing tiers.

This isn’t a sign of hesitation, but rather a calculated preparation for what many anticipate will be a true market boom just around the bend.

Foldables are evolving from mere showcases of engineering prowess into powerful tools for brand differentiation, especially within the lucrative mid-to-high-end smartphone segment.

The battle for bendable supremacy is undeniably heating up, and the landscape is shifting dramatically.

Samsung, the early pioneer and long-reigning monarch of the foldable kingdom, is finding its crown increasingly heavy.

Despite the recent launch of its Galaxy Z Fold 7, featuring significant advancements in hinge design, crease visibility, and overall form factor, the Korean giant’s market share is projected to slide from a dominant 45.2% in 2024 to a still leading, but considerably diminished, 35.4% in 2025.

This erosion of dominance is largely attributed to the aggressive emergence of Chinese competitors.

Huawei, despite geopolitical headwinds, is projected to maintain strong momentum within its home market, securing the second-largest global share at 34.3% in 2025.

Hot on their heels are Honor and Lenovo (Motorola), two brands making significant inroads with their aggressive expansion strategies.

Honor’s share is forecast to climb from 6% to 9.1%, while Lenovo (Motorola) is set to rise from 5.5% to 7.6%.

Xiaomi is also gaining traction, particularly with its compact MIX Flip series, pushing its share from 3% to 5.1%.

Combined, other brands like OPPO and vivo contribute to an increasingly diverse and competitive foldable ecosystem, accounting for a collective 8.5%.

The message is clear: the early adopter phase, where Samsung largely dictated terms, is over.

This is now a multi-front war for the future of mobile design.

But the path to ubiquitous bendable screens isn’t without its bumps.

TrendForce astutely points to lingering consumer apprehensions: the persistent concern over crease visibility, durability worries, and, perhaps most critically, the still-premium price tags.

For a significant segment of consumers, particularly those not fiercely loyal to a specific brand, the incentive to abandon their reliable, cost-effective bar-type flagships remains relatively low.

Foldables are still largely perceived as high-end experimental devices, fascinating to observe but not yet compelling enough for a mass migration.

That perception, however, may be on the precipice of a dramatic overhaul.

All eyes are now turning to 2026, the year TrendForce believes could mark the true inflection point for foldables.

The reason? The long-rumored, highly anticipated entry of Apple into the foldable arena.

Speculation suggests Apple is likely to launch its first foldable phone in the second half of next year, featuring a 5.5-inch external display and a 7.8-inch internal display.

If confirmed, this isn’t merely another competitor joining the fray; it’s a potential game-changer of immense proportions.

Apple’s entry is expected to significantly elevate consumer interest and acceptance of foldables, especially among its loyal base of high-end users.

The device is rumored to emphasize Apple’s signature focus on ecosystem integration and stability, promising deep iOS optimization for foldable use cases and the seamless integration between hardware and software that defines the Apple experience.

This isn’t merely about a new device; it’s about a paradigm shift in consumer confidence.

Apple has a unique ability to validate nascent technologies, to polish them, and to present them in a way that resonates with a broader audience.

Their imprimatur could be the catalyst that transforms foldables from a niche, albeit growing, segment into a truly mainstream product category.

As prices continue to fall and material science advances, making foldables increasingly accessible and durable, Apple’s debut could inject renewed momentum into the entire smartphone industry.

It could be the moment when the foldable phone truly folds into the fabric of everyday digital life.